Skip to contents

Reserving Models

Five stochastic reserving model implementations

berquist()
Create list for Berquist-Sherman incremental severity model
capecod()
Create list for Kramer Chain Ladder parmaterization model g - Assumed loss emergence model, a function of the parameters a. Note g must be matrix-valued with size rows and size columns g itself Basic design is for g to be a function of a single parameter vector, however in the simulations it is necessary to work on a matrix of parameters, one row for each simulated parameter, so g_obj must be flexible enough to handle both. Here g_obj is nonlinear and based on the Kramer Chain Ladder parmaterization
chain()
Create list for Cape Cod model
hoerl()
Create list for Generalized Hoerl Curve Model with trend g itself Basic design is for g to be a function of a single parameter vector, however in the simulations it is necessary to work on a matrix of parameters, one row for each simulated parameter, so g_obj must be flexible enough to handle both. Here g_obj is Wright's operational time model with trend added
wright()
Create list for Generalized Hoerl Curve with individual accident year levels (Wright's)

Optimization Functions

Maximum likelihood estimation framework

make_negative_log_likelihood()
Make Negative Loglikelihood Function to be Minimized
make_gradient_of_objective()
Make Gradient of the objective function
make_log_hessian()
Make Hessian of the objective function

Utility Functions

Helper functions and data

get_incremental_avg_matrix()
Calculate incremental average matrix
model_description()
Get the long description of a model

Data

Example datasets

B0
B0 is a 10 x 10 matrix representing the upper triangle of a actuarial development triangle used by Roger Hayne to illustrate the stochastic loss reserving software in
A0
A0 is a 10 x 10 matrix representing the upper triangle of a actuarial development triangle used by Roger Hayne to illustrate the stochastic loss reserving software in
dnom
dnom is count forcast for the B0 development triangle; the exposures (claims) used in the denominator #' @format integer vector of length 10
B0

count forcast for the B0 development triangle.

table_1_triangle
table_1_triangle is the development triangle from the reference article
RAA_incremental
RAA Incremental Claims Triangle
RAA_cumulative
RAA Cumulative Claims Triangle